KEEP AN EYE ON 8,050 TO 8,150.

                                                                                                September 19, 2014

In 15^th August, 2,014, Write up “CASH IS KING” Projected 8,200 Top. Exactly on 8^th September Nifty Hit High Of 8,180 and fall started. Nifty drifted down to 7,925.

Now in days to come 8,050 Workout as Trend Decider level. Above which Markets will rally up to 8,200 or marginal new high of 8,300 to 8,350. From there Sharp fall up to 7,850 (First down target) and last up to 7,500—7,600 is Possible in the Month of October & November. So Book Profit at Higher level.

To Sum Up Keep an eye on 8,050 to 8150 level. Above 8,150 Bullish Up target 8,300 to 8,350. Below 8,050 Bearishness will start. Down first Target 7,850 and second down target 7600---7500.

Ashish Thakur.

Columnist / HNI Consultant / Faculty MBA Finance Technical Analysis

E-mail.ashishthakur1966@gmail.com.

Mob.9819729508

(Imp.Note.:-

This write up is for information purpose for M.B.A, FINANCE students. On this write up if any STOCK MARKET / Financial position is taken neither Ashish Thakur nor his write up is held responsible for any financial loss please note. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position.)

 

CASH IS KING

                                                                                                              15^thAugust,2014

                          

If you examine last 30 years History data from 1984 till date. In that I found some MIND BLOWING facts “AFTER EVERY GENERAL ELECTIONS SHARE MARKETS DOUBLE FROM ITS BOTTOM”.

In 1984, Congress came in to power under the leadership of late Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. Before Elections Sensex was just 270. After elections it went up to 650 by February 1986. It was more than double.

In 1989, Mr. V.P. Singh came in to power. At that time sensex was 680. After formation of new government and presentation of budget by Socialist leader late Mr. Madhu Dandavate Sensex reached to 1602 (from 680 to 1602).

In 1991, Mr. P.V. Narsinharao became the Prime Minister and Mr. Manmohansingh became the Finance Minister at that time sensex was around 1950 and with in six months sensex doubled i.e. from 1950 it became 4546 it was labeled as the Harshad Mehta boom.

In 1998, Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the P.M. at that time Sensex was 2740 it rose to 6150.

In 2004, Mr. Manmohan Singh became the P.M. at that time sensex was around 4,200. In five years sensex shot up to five times i.e. 4,200 to 21,000.

In 2,009 after Loksabha Election result Both B.S.E & N.S.E. got upper ( Buyer ) circuit.

In 2014 here is Exception, In all above data after Election Result & formation of New Government rally took place but-

 In 2014 Prior to Election Market witness rally precisely -- later part of 2013. This bull rally is started. This bull rally has been divided into three parts. ANTICIPATION, LIKELY & ACTUAL.

ANTICIPATION :- Latter part of 2013 Three States B.J.P got Majority indicating

                                 Mr.Narendra Mody lead B.J.P./ N.D.A.Wave in Election.

                                                                                                                   

LIKELY               :- Pre Election Survey and Exit Polls Indicating Majority to N.D.A.

ACTUAL              :- On its own B.J.P. got Majority.

In this seven Months Market rallied almost 7,000 Points On B.S.E. & 2,100 Points on  N.S.E. On EXPECTATION But where is Growth?

1) Recently everybody is expecting that Industrial Growth will rise and Inflation will fall.

Exactly it happened - but in opposite direction Industrial growth fall to 3.5% and Inflation rise to 8%.

2) Still all over India basis we are running Rainfall deficit./floods.( Unevenly distribution of rains)  affecting food productions tends to rise inflations. Unless and until inflation is not coming under control ( R.B.I. projection 6% by middle of 2015.) there is no room for  interest rate cut. Industry loans are available at higher cost.

3) First quarter of 2014 Company results are average or even below expectations compared to its market rates/valuations rather two or three Sectors are managing the show (Sensex Management) namely I.T., F.M.C.G, PHARMA, H.D.F.C. & TATA MOTORS etc. What’s new?  Again, Old wine content in New Bottle.                                     (Here you don’t expect too much from P.M. Mr. Narendra Mody and its team. Here we have to give at least 12-18 Months to revive the Economy)

4)   International Tensions like Iraq and Gaza belt.

On above facts we assume that in short term Valuations are gone ahead of its Fundamentals on Domestic front but on International front things were further more gloomy. Well known Economist & R.B.I. Governor Mr.Raghuram Rajan in his Interview to Times of India exactly forces me to recollect the old bitter memories of 2008 World Economic Crisis.

As per Mr.Raghuramrajan -- U.S.Federal Reserve and other Central Bank Policy to keep long term low interest rate and Super easy Money i.e.Q E. leads to—Assets of all sorts have become Inflated ( Bubble) laying groundwork for more Financial Market turmoil. (Recently Italy is facing Economic recession)

On Indian soil also we are witnessing “Super Easy money flow” indicating in days to come, formation of New Historic High is on card around 8,050 to 8,200 on Nifty.

In this process of “HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN” we should not forget past History.

All Financial Markets perform Exactly Opposite of Rational Human being thinking.

Market men often say “On Euphoria Markets form Top and in Panic Markets form Bottom” And “On Rumors you have to buy and on News you have to Sell”.

At present classic example of this statement is U.S.Economy.Their G.D.P. grew from 2% to 4% exact double. On this Good news, Euphoria Dow topped out on 17^th July 2014 around 17,151 and fall started.

Now take Our Examples:- After hitting Historic Top In subsequent days market becomes half.

In1992 Harshad Mehta rally Markets made Historic Top of 4,546 and subsequently B.S.E. Sensex become half i.e. 2,000.

In 2000 DotCom Boom Markets made Historic Top of 6,150 and subsequently become half i.e. 3,000.

In 2008 Markets made Historic Top of 21,300 and in  Panic fall  with in 10 months market fell to 7,700 (all B.S.E. quotes)

As per “ DOW THEORY” ( Technical Analysis Study ) :-   With in one year market may form Top or Bottom. It’s a turning point for on going Bull/ Bear Rally.( Here you  have to refer bull rally.)

 Friends, if you remember exactly on 28^th August, 2013 Markets formed bottom around 5,118 on Nifty and on BSE Sensex 17,450 in coming days we are completing 1 year so now we are nearby area to form top ( On Nifty 7,800 to 8,100) and then afterwards Panic fall. Nifty may fall between 6,800 -- 7,200. SO BE ALERT ON HIGHER SIDE.

NEED OF HOUR.

Take the assessment of your Portfolio e.g. If you Invested Rs.5 Lacs in last 2yrs. Take a present valuation of your portfolio. Start booking profit in shares in which you are in profit. In every rally sell 25% so your average is near to High. Believe it on me nobody in the market is able to catch Top or Bottom. All are near by.      Stop buying for long term rather don’t buy.( But STILL “ DIL HAI KE MANATA NAHI”) Then buy for very  short term basis. Keeping in mind 5% to 10% return with Strict stop Loss. When there is Euphoria start selling shares which are slow moving because we have given maximum time to perform. Ask this question to your mind.-- In this super fantastic rally if this slow moving /loss making  share are not rising/ moving then when will it move?  In bear market ?  no question. So realize the fact and be on cash “CASH IS KING”

             Conclude this write up by Investment Guru Sir Peter Lynch’s historic quote “Bull markets born on Pessimisms, grow on Skepticism, mature on Optimisms and die on Euphoria. So, best time to sell is on Euphoria. Exactly that’s what we are experiencing right now.

Ashish Thakur.

(Columinist, H.N.I. Consultant & Faculty (M.B.A.FINANCE)

E-mail.ashishthakur1966@gmail.com.Mob.9819729508

(Imp.Note.:-

This write up is for information purpose for M.B.A, FINANCE students. On this write up if any STOCK MARKET / Financial position is taken neither Ashish Thakur nor his write up is held responsible for any financial loss please note. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position.)

      

  

ON THE EVE OF BUDGET

Last Six Months Stock Market Movement (Bullish Move) can be classified as ANTICIPATION, LIKELY, ACTUAL.

ANTICIPATION: - Four State Elections in last quarter of 2,013 gave clear verdict to B.J.P. & Mr. Narendra Mody. From that time People of India anticipate there is change in Centre and Mody will be P.M. (Seed of Bull Market sown here)

LIKELY:- In Exit poll  N.D.A. Indicating 272 Seats.( Fuel in fire )

ACTUAL:- ON  16^TH MAY 2,014 B.J.P. got 282 seats Single party Majority after 25 to 30 years.

 From This Anticipation to Actual process Market rallied 7,000 points On B.S.E.& 2,000 Points on N.S.E. In last Six to Eight Months.(Market Rally from On 19,000 to 26,000  On B.S.E & 5,700 to 7,700. On Nifty.) ON GOOD FUNDAMENTALS.

Now Fundamentals also change dramatically.

Due to AL—Neo. At present we are facing weak Monsoon.

Iraq Issue gives rise to Oil price & Inflation.

Joker in Pack is Fiscal Deficit. Last Government Interim Budget Fiscal Deficit is projected to 4.1% to G.D.P. Now big question is whether this Government agreed with this figure. And above mentioned things (drought & Inflation) will make it difficult to keep Fiscal Deficit under control. And this is a big worry to Foreign Financial Institution.

And as per Technical Count we are in last leg of  UP MOVE. On Nifty 7,850 to 7,900. Strong Resistance. And if Very good Budget then 8,050. from there 500 to 600 points fall is visible. First 7,500 and then Around 7,250 to 7,300. Here BOOK PROFIT & BE ON CASH.

Here I feel New Up Move in Market will start after Substantial fall In this fall Nifty will come down to 6,500 to 6,800 & B.S.E.22,000 TO 22,500. from here Multi Year Bull Market will Start and its Up Target is 33,000 to 35,000 on B.S.E.& 11,000 On N.S.E.Minimum.

So be on cash to pick up quality stock at throw away prices.

ECONOMIC EDUCATION & FINANCIAL AWARENESS IS THE MAIN GOAL OF                THIS BLOG.  

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob.+91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note. Before taking any Buying or Selling position Pl. consult to your Financial Advisor.

Market Observation - 24th March 25, 2014

As per Fibonacci Time Cycle 25^th & 26^th March 2014 are Important Turning dates. At Present Nifty Cash 6580.Maximum 100 point Upside is left then afterwards fast fall will take place and Nifty down Target are  around 6350 or Worst 6050. For 100 Points upside   (On Nifty 6,700 to 6,750) how much risk you will take???  So book your Profit and be on Cash

ECONOMIC EDUCATION AND FINANCIAL AWARENESS IS MAIN MOTO OF THIS BLOG.

Disclaimer:-  This Market Observation is  for M.B.A.Finance Student. For Study purpose.Any Market Buy/sale position took and if there is any Loss neither this Blog/ nor Ashish Thakur held responsible for the same. Pl. note.

Market Observation

Now Nifty Cash  is  unable to cross 6250. in days to come and Market drift down. Then safely assume that Market form its Top Time wise & Pricewise. As per Fibonacci Time Series

25^th February 2014. Is Important Turning date so be Alert on Buying Side. Next Support area is 6050 &5980.and final Target 5700to 5800. so Watch whether 6050 is holding or not then only fast fall will take place.

Economic Education & Financial Awareness is Main Moto of This Blog Pl.Refer to Disclaimer.

ALERT ALERT ALERT (On 19th February 2014 N.S.E.(Cash) 6152. B.S.E. Close 20722.)

Now Nifty is heading towards very stiff resistance of 6150 to 6200. Present up move started from on Nifty 5933 /BSE 19963.Now we are at last leg of rally. After achieving above said targets Market may witness a sharp fall up to 5700 to 5800./On B.S.E.19300 to 19600.

Now PLEASE BOOK YOUR PROFIT AT EVERY RALLY. Who ever missed 23^rd January 2014 Top they should book profit over here be on cash this cash will be utilized when Market drifts down to 5700.level.

As per Time Cycle (Fibonacci Time Cycle) 19,20^th February 2014 is Important Turning Date. Here Market May form Top. (0n Nifty 6150 to6200)  So be Alert on Buying.

Reader May share their view on ashishthakur1966 @gmail.com

Disclaimer:-  This is a Technical Analysis Study for Technical Analysis  Sudent. Base on this if any Market Buying, Selling is done and if there is any loss neither this write up nor Ashish Thakur held responsible for same. Pl.Note.

Weekly Review from 9th To 13th December, 2013. (Previous week close B.S.E. 20,996 & N.S.E. (CASH) 6,259.)

“So from now enjoy the rally” was the concluding remark of 13^th November, 2013 blog. (At that time Nifty was 5989. B.S.E.Sensex 20194. )

In coming week if Nifty stays above 6,250, then these Happy & Cheerful days are extended further more up to Nifty target 6,450 to 6,550 & on B.S.E. Sensex 21500 to 21800.  (Diamond Pattern Up target.) Here Book 25% Profit. At every rally.

After achieving above said targets Nifty may drift down up to 6200-6250. & BS.E.Sensex 20800.

Economic Education & Financial Awareness is the the main Goal of this Blog.

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob.+91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note. Before taking any Buying or Selling position Pl. consult to your Financial Advisor.

Weekly Projection November 11 - 15

On 24^th October 2013 Blog I, categorically mentioned Book Profit on Every Rally Fall may Come any time. Be on Cash. Market from Top 6,342 on Nifty and on B.S.E. 21,321.

On 24^th October 2013 Blog concluded with Sir Peter Lynch Quote. “Bull Market born on Pessimisms Grow on Skepticism Mature on Optimisms, and die on Euphoria. So best time to sell on Euphoria that what we are witnessed on 3^rd November 2013 Diwali days. If you recall memories everybody is sure about 6,500 to 7,000 on Nifty (for details Pl. refer to earlier blog attached here with.)

24^th October 2013.  Blog future projection comes in reality from Top Market hit Low on N.S.E. 5,972 & On B.S.E. 20,161. On 13^th November 2013 fall of 370 points on Nifty & 1,160 points on B.S.E.

Now Market is having strong support around 5,950 to 6,000 on Nifty and 20,100 on B.S.E. Here Market will take support and Rally up to 6,200 – 6,250. Here Market is having stiff resistance.

So for now enjoy the rally.   (Still on Nifty 5,850 down target is pending)

Economic Education & Financial Awareness is the Main Goal of this Blog.

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob. +91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note. Before taking any Buying or Selling position Pl. consult to your Financial Advisor.

Weekly Market View from 21st to 25th October, 2013. (Last week close. On B.S.E 20,882 /ON N.S.E 6,189 )

As per Fibonacci Time Cycle 24^th to 27^th October, 2013 are Important Turning dates, Here   Market may top out. And in days to come Market down target are On Nifty 5,800.and on B.S.E. 19,300.( for the month of November,2013)    

So book Profit  at every rally.

These are Important Technical Analysis Studies.

          

As per GANN Angle Studies Marking 4^th June 2012 Low.---  its Up 45 degree Angle is 6270 on Spot Nifty. So in days to come if Nifty is unable to cross and stay above 6270 on Cash Nifty then safely assume Market is forming Top on 24^th to 28^th October, 2013.

Again we are completing 1,100 points Up rally on Nifty, (28th August, 2013.Low of 5,118. to 6,250...& more then 3,000.Points rally on B.S.E. ) so be alert.

Now Economic Reason

At Present Economic Growth is 5% and Inflation is 8.88%. its negative for Economy.

At present Market Trading 16 time this year and 14 times One Year forward earning.

Cement Sector Coming out with poor results, though its discounted by market but it indicates that in days to come Infrastructure and Real estate sector heading for trouble.

These sectors are direct consumers of Cement.

Keeping Fundamental & Technical Studies in mind  nobody is able to catch “Exact Top or Bottom” So protect Hard earned Money and Profit. On this Euphoria I always remember Investment Guru Sir Peter Lynch Historic Quote,

“Bull Market born on Pessimisms, Grow on Skepticism, Mature on Optimisms and

Die on Euphoria.”  So best time to sell -- on Euphoria. That’s what Exactly going on

  

Friends ask this question to your mind in this Euphoria if Nifty reaches to 6,300.Plus.

How much we are earning? And At what cost? ( If we enter at this level )

For last one or two percent how much Capital we have to risk? So Book profit in this rally.

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob.+91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note. Before taking any Buying or Selling position Pl. consult to your Financial Advisor.

YES, MARKET HAS DONE IT.

In my Blog Weekly review dated 19 to 23^rd August, 2013. Last paragraph was---

“Concluded this blog with cheerful note Hold your breath—Nifty down aberration

Target is 5,130. Here Market is bottoming out and Market will rally up to 5,800          

To 6,000.” (For details and Authenticity Pl. refer to 19 to 23^rd August, 2013.)

In this rollercoaster ride I am always with reader to guide Market Moves well in advance

In Month of July Nifty topped 6,100 / BSE topped 20,351 on 23^rd July, 2013. Projected in 23^rd July, 2013 blog and appealed to Investors to Book Profit and Be on Cash. Bottom on Nifty 5,100 and on BSE. 17,448 were projected in 19 to 23^rd August2, 013. Blog. And above said bottoms were formed on 28^th August, 2013.

Main thrust of this blog is in this rollercoaster ride Investor’s must protect their hard earned Money and maximize their Profits. This enables me to keep my blog motto i.e.

Economic Education and Financial Awareness is the main goal of this blog.

Now Lets turn to coming week ( 9^th Sep to 13^th September,2013.)

Now Market has achieved its up target. So Book Profit at every rally. And be on cash.  As per Fibonacci Time Cycle 11^th And 12^th September 2,013. are Imp. Turning Dates. Be Alert Book profit.

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob.+91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note. Before taking any Buying or Selling position Pl. consult to your Financial Advisor.

Stock Market Weekly View for the Period 26th August to 30th August2013.

Last one Month fall starting from 23^rd July, 2013 achieved its logical down target 5,400.on Nifty and aberration level 5,150 to 5,250 achieved on 22^nd August,2013. (This projection was done on 23^rd July2013 blog. Pl. refer to earlier blog starting from 23^rd July,2013 onwards attached herewith to get clear idea) On Nifty 850 points fall accurate projection credit goes to Technical Analysis subject.

Now let us turn to coming week. (Friday 23^rd August close on B.S.E. 18,519 & on N.S.E. 5,471)

From these levels on Nifty 5,250 / on B.S.E. 17, 759 Market is witnessing a weak bounce and its up target is on Nifty 5,500 to 5,550 and second target 5,650—5,750.

As per Fibonacci Time Cycle 26^{th &} 27^th August, 2013 is Imp. Turning date Here If Nifty is unable to cross 5,550 to 5,600 then Market may form top Time wise and Price wise and below 5,440 markets may drift  to 5,300 ---5,130 area. This is F&O expiry week so market may witness lots of volatility so Investors keep strict stop losses on their Buying and selling position. (Safer side trade on September series)

 Last week blog 19 to 23^rd August, 2013 one important statement is made .i.e

‘In this fall we must not forget “Joker in pack” i.e. Brent Crude and Dollar.’

Dollar already took its slice from 58 it shoot up to 65. Now another Joker is Brent crude.

Above 109 its bullish and its first Up target 114 and 120.leads to higher Inflation and widen Current Account Deficit Gap. (Pl. refer to 28^th July2013 blog “ Economic reasons”)

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob.+91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note. Before taking any Buying or Selling position Pl. consult to your Financial Advisor.

Stock Market Weekly View from 19 to 23rd August.2013.

Friends, within one day 700 points fall on B.S.E. and 200 points fall on N.S.E. is really painful.( black Friday on  16^th August,2013) But well in advance from 22^nd July,2013  this blog is giving warning about this BLOODBATH

For  instance on 23^rd July 2013 blog  categorically mentioned Market forming Top Time wise and Price wise. 23^rd to 25^th July was Important Turning date for market here Market Form Top around 6,100 to 6,200.And Max.6,300. Here Investors must book Profit and be on Cash. (On 23^rd July 2013.Market formed Top On B.SE.20,351.& on N.S.E.6093 for details Pl. refer to 23^rd July 2013 blog. attached herewith.)  On Nifty below 5,750.Market is heading for big trouble.i.e.black Friday.

Wek Bounce/Rally also projected.

 On 11^th August, 2013 (Market View from 12^th to 16^th August, 2013) blog----

At present Market is oversold and will Witness weak bounce /rally and its up targets are

1^st 5,620 to 5,650 and 2^nd up Target 5,750.These are very attractive Short Selling Levels. Keeping 5,800 as Stop loss.  After achieving above said targets Nifty down logical target 5,400 and aberration level 5,150 to 5,250.

Friends, have I failed to Inform you  this Panic fall  well in advance?( rather one Month in  advance warning is issued Time and Price wise.) Losing Investors hard earned Money is really a concern within one stroke entire saving is affected.

Teaching Technical Analysis to lay person without Educational background is the main Intension of this blog. i.e. ECONOMIC EDUCATION AND FINANCIAL AWARENESS IS THE MAIN GOAL OF THIS BLOG.

These efforts had been done since 2,008. Projecting 2.008 Great Recession Panic fall create tension to Investors. Published in News paper.5^th May 2,008. (write up Attached in beginning of the blog)

Now let’s turn to Coming week (19th to 23^rd August 2,013. Earlier week B.S.E./N.S.E. close  was. 18,598/5507)

After BLACK FRIDAY million Dollar question is whether weak bounce is going to come or not??? If it comes  its up targets are 1^st level 5560.& 2^nd level  5,650.After achieving above said up targets  Market  will Complete its first LOGICAL DOWN TARGET 5,400 and ABERRATION LEVEL 5,130 to 5,250.

In this “ALL FALL DOWN PROCESS” Now Dow and Nasdaq will join in their early days but as per Technical Analysis Study Dow formed top around 15,658. On 2^nd August2013.& Nasdaq 3694.on 5^th August,2,013. In this fall process not to forget ‘Jocker  in pack’ i.e. Brent Crude and Dollar these twins will take enough care to bring Market down to its logical target of 5,400 and Aberration level 5,130 to 5,250.

Conclude this blog with cheerful note Hold your Breath. After achieving above said down targets, Market will Rally up to 5,800 to 6,000 in Months to come.

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob.+91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note.

Stock Market Weekly View from 12th to 16th August,2013.

                 

As expected line this week Stock Market is witnessing weak bounce and its up target is 5,620 to 5,650 and second target is 5,720 to 5,750. These are attractive levels for short sales. Keeping 5,800. As Strict stop loss.

After achieving above said targets Market will again resume its downward journey and its first logical down target is 5,400. And aberration level 5.150 to 5,250. By August end.

Here Market will bottom out temporarily.

Economic Education & Financial Awareness is Main Goal of this Blog.

Readers can share their views, opinion on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com,

Mob.9819729508.( Time 5 to 7 p.m.)

Disclaimer:-This view is expressed to M.B.A.Finance/ learning Technical Analysis students for Information purpose only. Based on this view any Market Buying or Selling is done and if there is any loss neither this view/Blog nor Ashish Thakur held responsible for the same Pl.note.

23^rd July onwards 1200 point fall on BS.E. & 400 point fall on N.S.E. projected well in advance Time wise and Price wise in July 22, 2013 blog. In that I  appealed to Investors to book Profit because at that time Market was near to an All time High and insisted to be on Cash.(for details refer to 22^nd July 2013 blog)

Now million dollar question where Market is heading?

Expected first down target of 5,750 achieved on Nifty on 31^st July. Now immediate question where market is going to take support? As mentioned in earlier blog 5^th August 2013, is Important Time Cycle date.(turning date) Here market may take temporary support around 5,650 because market is deeply oversold plus 5650 on Nifty & 19,000 on B.S.E. are  Imp Levels which are going to hold time for being. After forming bottom over here (Time wise & pricewise) week bounce is on the cards. Its upward target on Nifty are 5,750 to 5,820.and second target 5,920 -5,950. (on B.S.E.19,500 to 19,700.and Max.19,865.) Around this levels Investor create Short sale position Here keep 6,000.as Strict Stop Loss for all Short sale position (Here on Nifty 5650 not holding then market is in deep trouble)

After achieving it’s up targets. Fall will resume and its Logical down targets are 5,400.   to 5,350 And aberration level 5130 to 5,200.

Economic Education and Financial Awareness is Main Goal of this Blog.

Reader can share their View, opinion on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com/  Mob.9819729508.( Time 5 to 7.p.m.)

Disclaimer:-This view is expressed to students who are learning Technical Analysis for information purpose only. Basis on these views any market Buying or Selling is done and if there is any loss neither this View/blog nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same Pl.note.

First lets check the accuracy of 22^nd July, 2013. Blog (write up )

In that blog I categorically mentioned that market is forming Top between 23^rd to 25^th July. Be alert, Start selling book profit. And exactly on 23^rd July 2013 Market formed Top on N.S.E 6,100 and on B.S.E. 20,351. And fall started.

Now lets take a call for this week (29^th July to 2^nd August 2013.)

At present market is oversold on very short term basis. Nifty take support around 5,850 to 5,900 and bounce up to5,980 to 6,000. Max.6,050.

Keeping 6,100 as strict stoploss. This is the Best short selling opportunity. Down targets are 5,850-5,800 and logical Target 5,750 on B.S.E. around 19,000. This fall will be over by 5^thAugust 2013. Again Imp. Fibonacci Time Cycle Date.( Imp. Turning date)

Here another possibility is:- In coming week Market is holding 5,850 and will witness  slow and sluggish up move then 5^th August onwards fall may start.( on 30^th July R.B.I.policy (event base situation) may face lots of Volatility)

Word of Caution:- In any given circumstances if Nifty stays below 5,750 & On B.S.E. below 19,000 for 15 working days then Market is  heading for big trouble ( Panic fall) down targets are 5,550 to 5,350 to 5,400.( on B.S.E. 17,500 to 18,000)

To Sum up :-  This is  an event based Week So, Watch the weak bounce On Nifty up to 5980 to 6000.max 6050 where ever market is forming double top, Triple top (on above said levels ) and sluggish movement indicating  best Short selling opportunity keeping 6,100. as Strict Stop Loss.

Economic reason for this panic falls.

1)      Dollar-Rupee equation. Dollar may rally up to 63.

2)      Crude oil rise up to 120 Dollar per barrel. ( At present 107 break out level above 109). These two reasons lead to higher Inflation and widen Current Account Deficit gap (Now It’s 4% and on Monthly basis its 12 billion Dollar a Month)

3)      CRISIL Report about Companies not able to serve there debts/ loan obligations (default on Interest) leads to N.P.A. for banks indicating Gloomy Economic & Industrial Environment. Be Alert &Trade Safe.

Economic Education Financial Awareness is Main Goal of this Blog

Disclaimers:-This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note.

Hi.

As per Time cycle 23rd July to 25th July 2013. Is IMPORTANT TURNING DATE for Indian Stock Market. Here market  on Nifty May Top out around 6,100 - 6,200 area.And Max.6,300. Here  at every rally book your profit. Be on Cash.After achieving above said targets market may witness fall . Down targets 5,900.and 5,750.  One Week Below 5,750 Market facing big trouble.Below 5,750 Panic falls start Down targets 5550 and 5,400.

Friends, Ask one Question to your mind.

In this super fantastic rally ( Near to All Time high ) If our Shares are not performing ( in losses) then when will our Shares to perform? in  fall  Question does not arise. Accept the fact  and Sell  your Shares Which are in Profit or Loss. It creates  Capital to buy Quality Stocks in the fall.

Ashish Thakur.

  

Imp.Note:-

This View is Expressed to Students who are learning Technical Analysis.for Information Purpose only. Based on this View any Market Buying or Selling is done and if there is a  Loss Neither this view Nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for the same.Please Note.

                  

CASH IS KING

                                                                                                             20^th November, 2012.

CASH IS KING

As per my earlier write up which appeared in Marathi News paper LOKSATTA “Manat Mandi Market madhe Teji” Dated 27^th August 2012. I categorically mentioned Market is in bull phase. Keep 5,200 as stop loss for long term investors. And 5,400 is the area to hold to keep market bullishness intact. After crossing 5,600 on Nifty probable target is 5,800 to 5900.Here Short term investor book profit. And enter at lower level. Now let’s check authenticity of this write up.

On 27^th Aug. Nifty was around 5,400.from their dips to 5,215. After taking support at this level it bounce to 5,400 areas. On 14^th September. Government declares its long awaited (Prolong) financial reforms in sectors like Retail, Aviation, Insurance, and Pension. In these ‘HAPPY DAYS’ monsoon, and ‘GAAR’postponement added fuel in fire and Nifty achieved its pending target of 5,800.

Now what next? Whether Nifty achieved its final target or some room is left? What will be Nifty/Sensex final target? What levels to be held on Nifty where by Bullishness kept intact. (Hold head above the water level.) With the help of “Technical Analysis” studies I am going to address all above queries.

As per the “DOW THEORY” With in one year market may form Top or Bottom. It’s a turning point for on going Bull/ Bear Rally. Friends, if you remember exactly on 20^th December, 2011 Market formed bottom around 4,531 on Nifty 15,135 on Bse Sensex. Next month we are completing 1 year so now we are nearby area to form top. Now I am keeping two possibilities in front of you.

Possibility No.1:- After achieving 5,800 on Nifty. Market must retrace up to 5,550(In fall Nifty must hold 5,550) In Coming days fall if Nifty is holding this level we are witnessing a new high around 5,950 to 6,050. This is the logical target for Nifty. In Euphoria Nifty target may be around 6,150 to 6.200. After achieving this target market may come across “PANIC FALLS” (Probably after Budget March 2013.)

Possibility No.2:- In days to come if Nifty unable to hold 5,550 and take support at 5,400. Then Possibility of new High is remote bounce will come up to max. 5,800. Here Nifty may form Double top. And fall may start.

IN NUTSHELL WATCH 5,550 LEVELS ON NIFTY AND ON BSE SENSEX 18,256.

If Nifty is holding 5,550. Then in days to come we are registering a new high in vicinity around 5,950 to 6,050. Or euphoric top. There after witnessing a “PANIC FALL”

 REASON FOR PANIC FALLS.

1)      At present Dollar is 55. In days to come if dollar is staying above 55.its Alarming bell in 2013 Dollar possible target is 60. Recall old memories when dollar reach   to 57. (June 2012) lots of steps were taken by R.B.I. to tame this rise. Like aggressive Dollar selling by Petroleum Companies, Banks, Ban on Speculative trading.etc.

2)      In Technical Analysis we refer “HISTORY REPEATS AGAIN.” Majority times  Tops or Bottoms were form in month of November,December,Janauary.This is some Interesting data.

(A)  2008 Mother of all recession prior to that on10^th January 2008. Indian market form Historic Top. On BSE 21,206 & On Nifty 6,357.

(B)   Last year on 20^th December, 2011. Market form Bottom. On B.S.E. 15,135 & 4,531 on Nifty. (On going Bull rally seeds were sowed at that time and as per Dow theory we are completing  one year  in next  month “Turning Point

(C)   Recall memories of 2010 Diwali. On 5th November, 2010 Sensex                      Challenge 2008 Historic Top. But unable to cross. (On B.S.E. 21,108.                          On Nifty 6,338)

(D)  In December 1991. Bse Sensex was Just 1,800. After election Mr. Narsivarao became P.M. and the then F.M. Mr. Manmohansingh (at Present P.M) presented Budget with in 4 month Sensex Doubled reach To 4,546. (In History it is labeled as Harshad Mehta rally.) Now if history repeats again then we are on turning point.

      3)   Feb.2013 Budget is the last pre Election Budget. Where by Fiscal Dieseline will keep aside and thrust is on poularistic Budget. Lead to vicious Circle (Fiscal deficit, Inflation and High rate of Interest.)

     4)    When Europe will come “Out of the woods” or Worst is behind them? Ask this question to Astrologer—instead of Economist.

     5)    Long awaited Rate cut by R.B.I. is on cards this December Policy If it comes 50 Base points it will cheer to every one but if it is not so then it will disappoint.

                                                       

From all above facts and figures in your mind you are now sure that you are near to the “TOP END OF THE MARKET” so, what needs to be done is in short                             NEED OF HOUR.

            Take the assessment of your Portfolio e.g. If you Invested Rs.5 Lacs in last 2yrs. Take a present valuation of your portfolio. Start booking profit in shares in which you are in profit. In every rally sell 25% so your average is near to High. Believe it on me nobody in market is able to catch Top or Bottom. All are near by Stop buying for long term. Trade on a short term basis. Keeping in mind 10% to 15% return with Strict stop Loss. When there is Euphoria start selling share which are slow moving because we are given maximum time to perform. Ask this question to your mind. In this super fantastic rally if share is not moving then when it will move? In bear market ? no question. So realize the fact and be on cash “CASH IS KING”

Now I am sharing my Technical Count.

As per Fibonacci Time Cycle Study 7^th December 2012 is Important Turning date if Nifty is between 5950 and 6050 and halted then assume market has formed the top. If Nifty is unable to cross this level in coming week say 10^th Dec. to 14^th Dec. then you will get top confirmation. Be on cash (In month of Dec. 3, 7 to 10, 27^th Dec. are Imp. Fibonacci turning dates).

Counter Strategy:-

If there is very heavy inflow from FIIS Like happened in January and February 2012 (Nifty rose from 4,500 to 5,600) then there is limitation for this count.

2^nd Alternative count :- is time being Nifty may form Top retrace upto 5700 and final attempt up to 6050 to 6200. Here unbelievable target 6,500 is New top for all this bullish count Nifty has to stay above 5,600 (fall below 5,600 is Strict Stop Loss for all buying positions).

In nutshell observe 3,7^th to 10^th Dec. Watch Nifty probable High (around 6050) if it is unable to cross those high in coming  week this is signal to Investor that market has formed Top for time being.

In these days I remember Investment Guru Sir Piter Lynch’s historic quote.

“Bull market born on Pessimisms, grow on skepticism, mature on optimisms, and die on Euphoria. So best time to sell is Optimisms and Euphoria. That’s what we are experiencing.

Ashish Thakur.

(Columinist, H.N.I. Consultant & Faculty (M.B.A.FINANCE)

 (Imp.Note.:- This write up has appeared in marathi newspaper Loksatta on Nov. 26, 2012.

This write up is for information purpose for M.B.A, FINANCE students. On this write up if any STOCK MARKET position is taken neither Ashish Thakur nor his write up is held responsible for any financial loss please note. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position.)

DARK CLOUDS – WHERE’S SILVERLINE?

                                                                                                 Oct.15, 2008.

                                  

                          DARK CLOUDS – WHERE’S SILVERLINE?

If you take review of my last two write ups

1)   PANIC FALL IN STOCK MARKET CREATES TENSION FOR INVESTOR’S. Dated 28^th April, 08 and

2)   SHARE MARKET DIRECTION----DEVISTATION. Dated. 15^th June.08

In both these write ups I categorically mentioned today’s market condition. Both these write ups I hinted reader’s/Investor’s -- Sensex is Topping out TIME WISE &PRICE WISE be alert. We are heading for a big fall i.e. Blood bath and exactly we are experiencing the same. Now we are finding “Ray of light in dark tunnel”. Again over here my favorite Febunachi Time Series will help us.

As per TIME CYCLE DATE (T.C.D.) 21^st to 28^th October, 2008. These 8 days are very important, in these days market may bottom out.

Other Important reasons on which we assume that “Market is about to start its’ bottoming out process". They are:-

1)      Blue chip shares are available below its “BOOK VALUE.” & Its’ MARKET CAPITALISATION. One instance is sufficient. At present we are around 11,000 but share prices are available on 8,800 sensex level of 14^th June, 2006. It’s a perfect Market capitulation.

2)      In my earlier write up I mentioned BSE SENSEX 14,000 level is very important support level in any given circumstances. If its broken with good volume, Please exit from the market (Sell/liquidate your portfolio). What we are experiencing is Repulcation of breaking that important technical level. Sorry to say Sensex may break psychological level of 10,000. Now level is not important lets once for all “Poison should be out of system”. In this aberration Investor must start investing10% at every fall (don’t deploy entire amount at one time.) and match their entry level with T.C.D. i.e. between 21^st to 28^th Oct, 2009.

3)      At present we are off nearly 50% from 10^th Jan.08. At that time Sensex was 21,000. Within 9 months this sharp correction occurred. (Individual stocks particularly Real Estate and Construction have fallen more then this.)

      

4)      At present B.S.E.Sensex P/E (Price Earning ratio) is around 10. Its first time in 7 years. We are getting such attractive level. Long term investors & Institutional Investors will enter at this level.

5)      R.B.I. cuts C.R.R. by 2.5% by which one lacks core available to Banks of which some money comes to stock market.

   

6)      Correction started in crude oil which will help to curb inflation.

7)      Golden rule of Economics is ‘ONE’S EXPENDITURE IS OTHERS INCOME’ Indo-U.S. Nuclear treaty helps Indian basic industries like Steel and Cement to boost up demand in this sector. To construct Nuclear Reactor requires special knowledge and advanced technology which is available with L&T, BHEL, H.C.C. etc. This move will help Indian Industry to come out from recessionary trend.

Friends it’s my personal appeal if you believe in me this is a right time for long term investor. Time has come to keep all negative thoughts aside concentrate on your buying list at every fall invest only 10 -15% fear of breaking 10k is there so take help of T.C.D.(21^st to 28^th Oct.2008 Between these days bottom may form). In this pessimistic / gloomy environment I always remember Investment Guru Sir Peter Lynch’s historic quote “Bull market born on pessimisms, grow on skepticism, mature on optimisms and die on euphoria. So, best time to buy is maximum pessimism. Exactly that’s what we are experiencing right now and that’s the Silver lining in the dark cloud.

Ashish Thakur

           

            Note:   This write up appeared in Marathi news paper “Maharashtra Times” (Times Group circulation dated 22^nd October, 2008)