ON THE EVE OF BUDGET

Last Six Months Stock Market Movement (Bullish Move) can be classified as ANTICIPATION, LIKELY, ACTUAL.

ANTICIPATION: - Four State Elections in last quarter of 2,013 gave clear verdict to B.J.P. & Mr. Narendra Mody. From that time People of India anticipate there is change in Centre and Mody will be P.M. (Seed of Bull Market sown here)

LIKELY:- In Exit poll  N.D.A. Indicating 272 Seats.( Fuel in fire )

ACTUAL:- ON  16^TH MAY 2,014 B.J.P. got 282 seats Single party Majority after 25 to 30 years.

 From This Anticipation to Actual process Market rallied 7,000 points On B.S.E.& 2,000 Points on N.S.E. In last Six to Eight Months.(Market Rally from On 19,000 to 26,000  On B.S.E & 5,700 to 7,700. On Nifty.) ON GOOD FUNDAMENTALS.

Now Fundamentals also change dramatically.

Due to AL—Neo. At present we are facing weak Monsoon.

Iraq Issue gives rise to Oil price & Inflation.

Joker in Pack is Fiscal Deficit. Last Government Interim Budget Fiscal Deficit is projected to 4.1% to G.D.P. Now big question is whether this Government agreed with this figure. And above mentioned things (drought & Inflation) will make it difficult to keep Fiscal Deficit under control. And this is a big worry to Foreign Financial Institution.

And as per Technical Count we are in last leg of  UP MOVE. On Nifty 7,850 to 7,900. Strong Resistance. And if Very good Budget then 8,050. from there 500 to 600 points fall is visible. First 7,500 and then Around 7,250 to 7,300. Here BOOK PROFIT & BE ON CASH.

Here I feel New Up Move in Market will start after Substantial fall In this fall Nifty will come down to 6,500 to 6,800 & B.S.E.22,000 TO 22,500. from here Multi Year Bull Market will Start and its Up Target is 33,000 to 35,000 on B.S.E.& 11,000 On N.S.E.Minimum.

So be on cash to pick up quality stock at throw away prices.

ECONOMIC EDUCATION & FINANCIAL AWARENESS IS THE MAIN GOAL OF                THIS BLOG.  

Readers can share their views on ashishthakur1966@gmail.com &Mob.+91 9819729508 (Time.7 to 9.p.m.)

Disclaimer:- This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note. Before taking any Buying or Selling position Pl. consult to your Financial Advisor.