First lets check the accuracy of 22^nd July, 2013. Blog (write up )

In that blog I categorically mentioned that market is forming Top between 23^rd to 25^th July. Be alert, Start selling book profit. And exactly on 23^rd July 2013 Market formed Top on N.S.E 6,100 and on B.S.E. 20,351. And fall started.

Now lets take a call for this week (29^th July to 2^nd August 2013.)

At present market is oversold on very short term basis. Nifty take support around 5,850 to 5,900 and bounce up to5,980 to 6,000. Max.6,050.

Keeping 6,100 as strict stoploss. This is the Best short selling opportunity. Down targets are 5,850-5,800 and logical Target 5,750 on B.S.E. around 19,000. This fall will be over by 5^thAugust 2013. Again Imp. Fibonacci Time Cycle Date.( Imp. Turning date)

Here another possibility is:- In coming week Market is holding 5,850 and will witness  slow and sluggish up move then 5^th August onwards fall may start.( on 30^th July R.B.I.policy (event base situation) may face lots of Volatility)

Word of Caution:- In any given circumstances if Nifty stays below 5,750 & On B.S.E. below 19,000 for 15 working days then Market is  heading for big trouble ( Panic fall) down targets are 5,550 to 5,350 to 5,400.( on B.S.E. 17,500 to 18,000)

To Sum up :-  This is  an event based Week So, Watch the weak bounce On Nifty up to 5980 to 6000.max 6050 where ever market is forming double top, Triple top (on above said levels ) and sluggish movement indicating  best Short selling opportunity keeping 6,100. as Strict Stop Loss.

Economic reason for this panic falls.

1)      Dollar-Rupee equation. Dollar may rally up to 63.

2)      Crude oil rise up to 120 Dollar per barrel. ( At present 107 break out level above 109). These two reasons lead to higher Inflation and widen Current Account Deficit gap (Now It’s 4% and on Monthly basis its 12 billion Dollar a Month)

3)      CRISIL Report about Companies not able to serve there debts/ loan obligations (default on Interest) leads to N.P.A. for banks indicating Gloomy Economic & Industrial Environment. Be Alert &Trade Safe.

Economic Education Financial Awareness is Main Goal of this Blog

Disclaimers:-This Market view is given for M.B.A.Finance Students. Any Market buying or selling is done on basis of this write up and if there is any loss. Neither this Blog (write up) nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for same. Pl. Note.

Hi.

As per Time cycle 23rd July to 25th July 2013. Is IMPORTANT TURNING DATE for Indian Stock Market. Here market  on Nifty May Top out around 6,100 - 6,200 area.And Max.6,300. Here  at every rally book your profit. Be on Cash.After achieving above said targets market may witness fall . Down targets 5,900.and 5,750.  One Week Below 5,750 Market facing big trouble.Below 5,750 Panic falls start Down targets 5550 and 5,400.

Friends, Ask one Question to your mind.

In this super fantastic rally ( Near to All Time high ) If our Shares are not performing ( in losses) then when will our Shares to perform? in  fall  Question does not arise. Accept the fact  and Sell  your Shares Which are in Profit or Loss. It creates  Capital to buy Quality Stocks in the fall.

Ashish Thakur.

  

Imp.Note:-

This View is Expressed to Students who are learning Technical Analysis.for Information Purpose only. Based on this View any Market Buying or Selling is done and if there is a  Loss Neither this view Nor Ashish Thakur is held responsible for the same.Please Note.

                  

CASH IS KING

                                                                                                             20^th November, 2012.

CASH IS KING

As per my earlier write up which appeared in Marathi News paper LOKSATTA “Manat Mandi Market madhe Teji” Dated 27^th August 2012. I categorically mentioned Market is in bull phase. Keep 5,200 as stop loss for long term investors. And 5,400 is the area to hold to keep market bullishness intact. After crossing 5,600 on Nifty probable target is 5,800 to 5900.Here Short term investor book profit. And enter at lower level. Now let’s check authenticity of this write up.

On 27^th Aug. Nifty was around 5,400.from their dips to 5,215. After taking support at this level it bounce to 5,400 areas. On 14^th September. Government declares its long awaited (Prolong) financial reforms in sectors like Retail, Aviation, Insurance, and Pension. In these ‘HAPPY DAYS’ monsoon, and ‘GAAR’postponement added fuel in fire and Nifty achieved its pending target of 5,800.

Now what next? Whether Nifty achieved its final target or some room is left? What will be Nifty/Sensex final target? What levels to be held on Nifty where by Bullishness kept intact. (Hold head above the water level.) With the help of “Technical Analysis” studies I am going to address all above queries.

As per the “DOW THEORY” With in one year market may form Top or Bottom. It’s a turning point for on going Bull/ Bear Rally. Friends, if you remember exactly on 20^th December, 2011 Market formed bottom around 4,531 on Nifty 15,135 on Bse Sensex. Next month we are completing 1 year so now we are nearby area to form top. Now I am keeping two possibilities in front of you.

Possibility No.1:- After achieving 5,800 on Nifty. Market must retrace up to 5,550(In fall Nifty must hold 5,550) In Coming days fall if Nifty is holding this level we are witnessing a new high around 5,950 to 6,050. This is the logical target for Nifty. In Euphoria Nifty target may be around 6,150 to 6.200. After achieving this target market may come across “PANIC FALLS” (Probably after Budget March 2013.)

Possibility No.2:- In days to come if Nifty unable to hold 5,550 and take support at 5,400. Then Possibility of new High is remote bounce will come up to max. 5,800. Here Nifty may form Double top. And fall may start.

IN NUTSHELL WATCH 5,550 LEVELS ON NIFTY AND ON BSE SENSEX 18,256.

If Nifty is holding 5,550. Then in days to come we are registering a new high in vicinity around 5,950 to 6,050. Or euphoric top. There after witnessing a “PANIC FALL”

 REASON FOR PANIC FALLS.

1)      At present Dollar is 55. In days to come if dollar is staying above 55.its Alarming bell in 2013 Dollar possible target is 60. Recall old memories when dollar reach   to 57. (June 2012) lots of steps were taken by R.B.I. to tame this rise. Like aggressive Dollar selling by Petroleum Companies, Banks, Ban on Speculative trading.etc.

2)      In Technical Analysis we refer “HISTORY REPEATS AGAIN.” Majority times  Tops or Bottoms were form in month of November,December,Janauary.This is some Interesting data.

(A)  2008 Mother of all recession prior to that on10^th January 2008. Indian market form Historic Top. On BSE 21,206 & On Nifty 6,357.

(B)   Last year on 20^th December, 2011. Market form Bottom. On B.S.E. 15,135 & 4,531 on Nifty. (On going Bull rally seeds were sowed at that time and as per Dow theory we are completing  one year  in next  month “Turning Point

(C)   Recall memories of 2010 Diwali. On 5th November, 2010 Sensex                      Challenge 2008 Historic Top. But unable to cross. (On B.S.E. 21,108.                          On Nifty 6,338)

(D)  In December 1991. Bse Sensex was Just 1,800. After election Mr. Narsivarao became P.M. and the then F.M. Mr. Manmohansingh (at Present P.M) presented Budget with in 4 month Sensex Doubled reach To 4,546. (In History it is labeled as Harshad Mehta rally.) Now if history repeats again then we are on turning point.

      3)   Feb.2013 Budget is the last pre Election Budget. Where by Fiscal Dieseline will keep aside and thrust is on poularistic Budget. Lead to vicious Circle (Fiscal deficit, Inflation and High rate of Interest.)

     4)    When Europe will come “Out of the woods” or Worst is behind them? Ask this question to Astrologer—instead of Economist.

     5)    Long awaited Rate cut by R.B.I. is on cards this December Policy If it comes 50 Base points it will cheer to every one but if it is not so then it will disappoint.

                                                       

From all above facts and figures in your mind you are now sure that you are near to the “TOP END OF THE MARKET” so, what needs to be done is in short                             NEED OF HOUR.

            Take the assessment of your Portfolio e.g. If you Invested Rs.5 Lacs in last 2yrs. Take a present valuation of your portfolio. Start booking profit in shares in which you are in profit. In every rally sell 25% so your average is near to High. Believe it on me nobody in market is able to catch Top or Bottom. All are near by Stop buying for long term. Trade on a short term basis. Keeping in mind 10% to 15% return with Strict stop Loss. When there is Euphoria start selling share which are slow moving because we are given maximum time to perform. Ask this question to your mind. In this super fantastic rally if share is not moving then when it will move? In bear market ? no question. So realize the fact and be on cash “CASH IS KING”

Now I am sharing my Technical Count.

As per Fibonacci Time Cycle Study 7^th December 2012 is Important Turning date if Nifty is between 5950 and 6050 and halted then assume market has formed the top. If Nifty is unable to cross this level in coming week say 10^th Dec. to 14^th Dec. then you will get top confirmation. Be on cash (In month of Dec. 3, 7 to 10, 27^th Dec. are Imp. Fibonacci turning dates).

Counter Strategy:-

If there is very heavy inflow from FIIS Like happened in January and February 2012 (Nifty rose from 4,500 to 5,600) then there is limitation for this count.

2^nd Alternative count :- is time being Nifty may form Top retrace upto 5700 and final attempt up to 6050 to 6200. Here unbelievable target 6,500 is New top for all this bullish count Nifty has to stay above 5,600 (fall below 5,600 is Strict Stop Loss for all buying positions).

In nutshell observe 3,7^th to 10^th Dec. Watch Nifty probable High (around 6050) if it is unable to cross those high in coming  week this is signal to Investor that market has formed Top for time being.

In these days I remember Investment Guru Sir Piter Lynch’s historic quote.

“Bull market born on Pessimisms, grow on skepticism, mature on optimisms, and die on Euphoria. So best time to sell is Optimisms and Euphoria. That’s what we are experiencing.

Ashish Thakur.

(Columinist, H.N.I. Consultant & Faculty (M.B.A.FINANCE)

 (Imp.Note.:- This write up has appeared in marathi newspaper Loksatta on Nov. 26, 2012.

This write up is for information purpose for M.B.A, FINANCE students. On this write up if any STOCK MARKET position is taken neither Ashish Thakur nor his write up is held responsible for any financial loss please note. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position.)

DARK CLOUDS – WHERE’S SILVERLINE?

                                                                                                 Oct.15, 2008.

                                  

                          DARK CLOUDS – WHERE’S SILVERLINE?

If you take review of my last two write ups

1)   PANIC FALL IN STOCK MARKET CREATES TENSION FOR INVESTOR’S. Dated 28^th April, 08 and

2)   SHARE MARKET DIRECTION----DEVISTATION. Dated. 15^th June.08

In both these write ups I categorically mentioned today’s market condition. Both these write ups I hinted reader’s/Investor’s -- Sensex is Topping out TIME WISE &PRICE WISE be alert. We are heading for a big fall i.e. Blood bath and exactly we are experiencing the same. Now we are finding “Ray of light in dark tunnel”. Again over here my favorite Febunachi Time Series will help us.

As per TIME CYCLE DATE (T.C.D.) 21^st to 28^th October, 2008. These 8 days are very important, in these days market may bottom out.

Other Important reasons on which we assume that “Market is about to start its’ bottoming out process". They are:-

1)      Blue chip shares are available below its “BOOK VALUE.” & Its’ MARKET CAPITALISATION. One instance is sufficient. At present we are around 11,000 but share prices are available on 8,800 sensex level of 14^th June, 2006. It’s a perfect Market capitulation.

2)      In my earlier write up I mentioned BSE SENSEX 14,000 level is very important support level in any given circumstances. If its broken with good volume, Please exit from the market (Sell/liquidate your portfolio). What we are experiencing is Repulcation of breaking that important technical level. Sorry to say Sensex may break psychological level of 10,000. Now level is not important lets once for all “Poison should be out of system”. In this aberration Investor must start investing10% at every fall (don’t deploy entire amount at one time.) and match their entry level with T.C.D. i.e. between 21^st to 28^th Oct, 2009.

3)      At present we are off nearly 50% from 10^th Jan.08. At that time Sensex was 21,000. Within 9 months this sharp correction occurred. (Individual stocks particularly Real Estate and Construction have fallen more then this.)

      

4)      At present B.S.E.Sensex P/E (Price Earning ratio) is around 10. Its first time in 7 years. We are getting such attractive level. Long term investors & Institutional Investors will enter at this level.

5)      R.B.I. cuts C.R.R. by 2.5% by which one lacks core available to Banks of which some money comes to stock market.

   

6)      Correction started in crude oil which will help to curb inflation.

7)      Golden rule of Economics is ‘ONE’S EXPENDITURE IS OTHERS INCOME’ Indo-U.S. Nuclear treaty helps Indian basic industries like Steel and Cement to boost up demand in this sector. To construct Nuclear Reactor requires special knowledge and advanced technology which is available with L&T, BHEL, H.C.C. etc. This move will help Indian Industry to come out from recessionary trend.

Friends it’s my personal appeal if you believe in me this is a right time for long term investor. Time has come to keep all negative thoughts aside concentrate on your buying list at every fall invest only 10 -15% fear of breaking 10k is there so take help of T.C.D.(21^st to 28^th Oct.2008 Between these days bottom may form). In this pessimistic / gloomy environment I always remember Investment Guru Sir Peter Lynch’s historic quote “Bull market born on pessimisms, grow on skepticism, mature on optimisms and die on euphoria. So, best time to buy is maximum pessimism. Exactly that’s what we are experiencing right now and that’s the Silver lining in the dark cloud.

Ashish Thakur

           

            Note:   This write up appeared in Marathi news paper “Maharashtra Times” (Times Group circulation dated 22^nd October, 2008)

 

      

  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

   

                                                                                                          

                               

PANIC FALL CREATES TENSION TO INVESTORS

                                                                                                              28^th April, 2008.

PANIC FALL CREATES TENSION TO INVESTORS

Market toping out around 21,000 on 10^th Jan.2008.Then afterwards market corrected sharply taken support around 15,000. In bull market 15 to 20% correction are normal. One corner of mind is favoring bull scenario and other corner of mind referring within four five days losing 5,000 points is a classic example of market topping out and in days to come will the sensex fall further more? Above doubts can be cleared one by one with the help of Technical Analysis studies and at end we’ll come to conclusion.

At present Sensex developed 2,000 point range keeping 15,300 as good support area. Here Sensex can go up to 17,300 to 17,500. Here Investor has to exercise caution and this is the area to be proved as “TREND REVERSAL” area.

WHY BULL TREND TURNS IN TO BEAR WHAT ARE THE REASONS.

1)      At present Inflation is around 7.5% and on saving bank A/c we are getting interest less then 7% which is against the Law of Economics. In future possibility of upward revision on interest rates is on cards where by Interest on Banks loan tends to rise.

2)      Mother of all Inflation is Crude oil and still its boiling on at present its’ around $100 per barrel and fear of reaching $130 to 140 is on cards.

Above are the Economic reasons. This affects each and every section of the Society. Now let me share my Technical Analysis studies with probable turning dates & Sensex range.

1)      When B.S.E. Sensex broke 19,000 area technically we entered in to the “BEAR GRIP”. Market fell very sharply and entered in to the Over Sold area. So its’ a Technical bounce or its’ just a “Relief Rally” where by every rise treated as Selling opportunity.

2)      B.S.E. Sensex already broke its 200 D.M.A.(Daily Moving Average.) This is the Bench mark in Investor community. Sensex above 200 D.M.A. bullish, below it Bearish, liquidate long term portfolio. At present it’s around 17,300. It’s a biggest

Hurdle for the Sensex to cross this level. Sensex has to cross this area with good Volume, staying above this area for at least 8-10 working days with good volume, good breadth, A.D. ratio. Equally Rally should spread to B1-B2 group not restrict to only ‘A’ group.

3)      Selling pressure can come from the Investor who has purchased shares around 15,300, around 17.300 or plus area Investor can encash 2000 point rise. (Book Profits)

      4)  In Technical Analysis we refer “Target” achieved by TIME WISE & PRICE WISE. As per Fibonachi Time Study - Beginning of May 08 & 22^nd to 26^th May 08 are Important Time periods where by Market Tops out and starts to correct.

Investors/Readers have to keep in mind Sensex Range along with its nature (Bull/bear)

1)      16,000 to 17,500plus (Bullish)

2)      Breaking 15,800 to 16,000 Alert

3)      Breaking 14,000 Sell all your portfolio/ Exit from market if 14,000 breaks market enters in to the “Bear Grip” and market may fall up to 11,000 - 12,000 or more.

Now Lets Match the Sensex Range along with T.C.D. (Time Cycle Date). Beginning of May, 08 and up to 22nd to 26^thMay 08. If BSE Sensex is not able to cross 17,500 or stay above 17,500 area then, safely assume that market will form its top “Time wise &Price wise’. Be alert and book your profit/loss. As per my studies these are very important time clusters where by on these days either market form the top or sharp fall may start. (Here 2-3 days earlier or plus can be permissible due to Saturday, Sunday and General holidays).

Ashish Thakur

Note:- This write up appear in Marathi news paper Maharashtra Times(Times group) and Loksatta (Indian Express group) on 5^th May 2008. 

About Me

Let me introduce myself.

Connected to the Stock Market for the past 22 years handling various fields. Currently handling three different profiles.

(A) Teaching Technical Analysis Subject to M.B.A(finance) Students.

(B) Investor’s Awareness Program. Timely Write ups in News Papers (Marathi – Loksatta) projecting well in Advance Stock Market Top & Bottom.

Projection well in advance mother of all recession i.e. US 2008 Panic Fall.

• Panic Fall Creates Tension to Investors - Dated 28^th April 2008
• Projecting Market Bottom  Dark Clouds -Where’s Silverline? Dated15^th Oct.2008.
• Recent Write up. Cash is King 29^thJanuary, 2013. Written in well in advance 20^th November, 2012

(C) H N I Consultancy (Designing Equity Portfolio for Wealth Creation.) 

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CHART Analysis

MULTI PURPOSE TECHNIQUE FOR ALL SECTION OF SOCIETY

1)      Useful for MBA Finance Students – How to Design Portfolio.

2)      Useful for Bullion Trader (Gold, Silver)

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To satisfy visit free lecture on Sat-Sunday by columnist – Ashish Arvind Thakur.

E-mail.- ashishthakur1966@gmail.com./Mob.9819729508.

This experience is to be shared with all section of society for which education is not bar - but aim is 

to earn a parallel legal  source of income to fight Inflationary trend.

 Regards,

Ashish Arvind Thakur.

E-mail.- ashishthakur1966@gmail.com./Mob.9819729508.